Expected goals, or xG, is a statistic that estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal. It is now part of nearly every match broadcast, yet plenty of fans still aren’t sure what it means. Here is the short version.
What xG measures
Each shot gets a value between 0 and 1. A shot with an xG of 0.10 is expected to be scored about one time in ten. A penalty is usually valued around 0.76, since most are scored.
What goes into the number
- Distance and angle to goal
- Body part used, foot or head
- Type of assist, such as a through ball or cross
- Whether the shot came from open play or a set piece
Different data providers use different models, so numbers for the same match can vary slightly.
How to use it
Add up the xG for every shot and you get a sense of which team created the better chances. A team that wins 1-0 with an xG of 0.4 against 2.1 may have been lucky.
Limits of xG
It ignores the shooter’s skill and the goalkeeper’s position in most models, and it does not judge defensive quality directly. It is a guide, not a verdict.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good xG per match?
Around 1.5 or more suggests a team is creating good chances regularly.
What is xGA?
Expected goals against, a measure of the quality of chances a team allows.
More analysis in Tactics & Analysis.
